Name: Boogie Ellis
Birth date: December 12, 2000
Height/Weight: 6’1/185
Wingspan/ standing reach: 6’7/8’2
Hand size: 9.5
Position: Guard
Pre-Draft team: USC
Tools: Quickness, shooting, P&R ball-handling
Background: Transferred from Memphis to USC in 2021.
Stats: 16.5 PPG 3.5 RPG 3 APG 1.4 SPG 0.1 BPG 1.8 TOPG on 43/42/72
Pros:
- Quick first step
- High motor
- Quick laterally on defense
- Strong shooter off one dribble pull-ups behind screens
- Excellent P&R ball-handler, both as a scorer and passer
- Deep range on his jump shot that should help his shot immediately translate to the NBA
- Comfortable attacking with his left hand
- Matured his game as a senior; doesn’t force offense often and fits into his role well
- Plays hard with a good motor
- Does a good job of turning his hips moving into 3s
- Consistently low turnover rates in college
- Long arms and good frame
Cons:
- Limited defensive upside
- Mediocre frame
- Needs to add strength
- Purely below the rim finisher
- Old for his class; will be 23 on draft night
Swing skills:
- Finishing ability against bigs and through contact and draw free throws
- Playmaking and ability to be a point guard
- Free throw rate is slightly below average; how can he get to the line and create more high-percentage points at the next level?
Summary:
Boogie Ellis revived his career at USC following a transfer from Memphis, finding a niche as a scoring primary guard that can also create for others at times. Ellis’ best trait with the ball in his hands is his three level scoring, particularly through the pick & roll. Ranking in the 87th percentile for pick & roll ball-handler, Boogie Ellis checks one of the main boxes NBA guards must check, which is the ability to be creative for both himself and others out of the P&R.
Offensively, USC had too many cooks in the kitchen with their cannibalistic guard system of having Isaiah Collier (a floor general PG), Bronny James (an off-ball guard at the same size), and Boogie Ellis, tasked with a blend of the two of them. While 3 guard lineups aren’t unheard of in the NBA, the structure of balancing guards’ roles together is much more fluid and logical, which will benefit all three players in the NBA. This context is important to consider, as Ellis could have been like how many other older players have behaved in the past next to another freshman NBA prospect, by using seniority to justify ball-hogging and intentionally not getting others involved. Instead, Ellis has continued to evolve to whatever roster is around him in his time at USC without any visible emotions, which is particularly impressive during a losing season when the talent should have taken the team further than they went. Ellis’ maturity in this regard sets him up to interview with teams well, and could help him sell his strong intangibles to make NBA teams want him in their locker rooms.
As a shooter, Ellis has deep range and can quickly turn his hips to hit curl into movement 3s, while also being able to shoot off the dribble. His mid range shot is a question mark, going from 47% last year on 2 point jumpers off the dribble to 31% this year on almost half the attempts, but this could be a result of the team’s spacing and personnel issues that made it harder for Ellis to get high quality looks in this area of the court. With NBA spacing, Ellis should be able to replicate his 2022-23 season’s shooting off the dribble, being able to more quickly attack the space created out of screens. This combination of on-ball scoring and spot-up shooting ability makes him a threat to be a top scorer in the G League before potentially graduating to the NBA.
While the jump shooting is his top skill, Ellis’ scoring efficiency decreases as he gets closer to the rim. As his shot chart below shows, as well as other years’ shot charts do, Ellis’ ability to finish around length has limited his scoring ceiling in college. There’s a chance that Ellis could see a slight boost to his rim percentages with NBA spacing, but it is not enough to bring him from his bottom 30 percentile ranking at the rim up to near average. His floater needs to become more efficient (around 36% over the last two seasons at USC) to minimize these shortcomings directly at the rim to help him win in the paint. Beyond point guard skills, finishing in the paint is Ellis’ biggest area for improvement in the NBA system.
On that topic, his overall playmaking needs improvement, often being late, or even totally absent, to moving parts around him to connect the offense. He is not a point guard because of his decision-making and timing of his decisions, which limits his NBA upside at just 6’3. At times across his whole collegiate career, Ellis was too ball dominant and looked out for himself and not teammates, which goes against the core value of what a point guard is supposed to do: make everyone around him better. In the PAC-12 Tournament, particularly against Arizona, Ellis’ score-first mentality prevailed in a negative way, highlighting the scoring guard role he fulfills more than the point guard role. Boogie will need to quickly learn more point guard skills and reads to stick in the NBA.
I wrote about Boogie Ellis’ defense in this game review, making the case for the intangibles to take him further than his skillset should. With physical limitations, Ellis is a one-position defender. If a guard is a one-position defender, he has to be a great defender to net any positive value on that end. While he does a good job of communicating and playing hard on defense, his physical traits are going to limit him, especially as he struggles to defend through screens. P&R defense remains one of the top defensive traits for NBA defenders, and Ellis does not check that box.
Ellis will have no trouble translating his scoring to the next level, which is likely to be the G League on a two-way or exhibit 10 contract. His scoring will easily scale up in the fast-paced environment, given his spot-up shooting, off the dribble shooting, and shot creation. What he needs to prove to coaches and decision-makers in front offices is how well his playmaking can translate, and if he can run an offense while simultaneously showcasing paint scoring abilities. His role is redundant in the NBA, so having point guard skills on top of his valuable scoring package will make him stand out from the pack of undersized guards. Being patient on a 23.5 year old (draft night age) score-first guard that needs to learn to be a point guard is a tall order for NBA teams. If he can quickly put these traits together to be better and is willing to learn, he will be a welcome addition at the end of a bench as a reserve guard.
Projected draft range: 50-undrafted
Expected role: Microwave guard off the bench
Unplayable if: P&R defense limits him, and his tweener guard status makes him hard to fit into schemes on both ends.
Exceeds expectations if: Point guard skills grow in the NBA, and overall spacing and flow of the offense allow for his finishing & playmaking to boost.
Videos:
Shot chart:
