A former Gatorade Player of the Year, Patrick Baldwin hasn’t quite lived up to his top recruit status in the three main events since high school graduation. As a freshman at Milwaukee, Baldwin played 11 games and averaged 12 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.8 BPG, and 2.1 TOPG on shooting splits of 34/27/74. Below is his full scouting report:
Name: Patrick Baldwin Jr
Height/Weight: 6’10/231
Wingspan/ standing reach: 7’1/9’2 ½
Hand size: 9 ½
Position: Forward
Pre-Draft team: UW-Milwaukee
Tools: Shooting, size
Pros:
- Easily shoots over defenders
- Good strength
- Deep range on his jumper
- Great shooting form
- Good rebounder
- Can hit movement threes
- Long arms
- Good handle, but needs to add more to his bag
- Length helps him have impactful closeouts
- Has good vision and can make advanced reads occasionally
Cons:
- Underwhelming production against post-high school competition
- Did not test well in athleticism at the NBA Combine
- Stiff hips at times defending drives
- Slow first step
- Needs to speed up his jump shot/reduce dip
- Doesn’t go straight up on a lot of jumpers
Summary:
Patrick Baldwin is a big shooter that could complement star ball-handlers that thrive in drive & kick and in isolation-heavy offenses. Baldwin provides value as a shooting threat that can shoot over defenders with ease. However, his percentages since high school, including the FIBA U19s in 2021 and his time at Milwaukee in college, have not lived up to the label of the plus shooter. In the two fields combined, Baldwin shot 26/92 (28.3%) from 3, which is alarming for a player of his caliber. The form is clean, as is his touch, but he needs to reduce his dip in his shooting motion to be able to consistently shoot over defenders with shooting accuracy.
Baldwin projects to be a negative defender, despite good length to attack closeouts. With low-level athleticism for a forward, he will struggle to guard and recover against drives. Additionally, while his length will help him defend spot-up jumpers, his athletic limitations will prohibit him from getting many blocks, both on the perimeter and down low, unless they come against guards trapped near the rim.
One area Baldwin is underrated in is a ball-handler, being able to use quick handles to get into his jump shot. He also has an ability to see the floor and pass out of tight defense. As Baldwin increases his moves in his bag, that skill will develop to be more deadly.
If Baldwin can prove his mental toughness with a strong work ethic to overcome poor showings in the FIBA tournament, Milwaukee, and the NBA Draft Combine, then he can surprise people as living up to his high-level shooting billing. Whichever team drafts him needs to be patient, willing to put up with some growing pains.
Similar to: Ben McLemore, Mike Dunleavy
Projected draft range: 26-47
Expected role: Shooting specialist with room to grow as a tertiary creator on the perimeter
Unplayable if: Jump shot percentages never increase and stiff defensive traits/athleticism never improve.
Exceeds expectations if: Jump shooting translates and ball-handling improves to create perimeter shots consistently.
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